August is on our average our second hottest month of the year so we're not too surprised that we are starting the month of scorching hot... a pretty good reflection of how you could describe the entire summer so far. Temperatures over the next 7-10 days look to remain well above normal with meager chances of rain expected.
Any Rain in the Forecast?
There's really only 2 opportunities we see in the near future of any rain, but sadly the chances are low. It will be another case of you may get a bit of rain if you end up under a random, pop-up storm but 80-90% of the area will see little to no rain in the next week or so.
Let's take a look at a couple of models!
Euro model expected total precipitation over the next 7 days
GFS model expected total precipitation over the next 7 days
You can see the major disagreement these models have is how wet Nebraska is going to be over the next 7 days, but notice how they both agree pretty well on what Colorado looks like. If we pinpoint an area like Castle Rock specificially and break it down here's what we see:
- Euro: 0.03 inches of precipitation
- GFS: 0.1 inches of preciptation
That is bone dry no matter how you slice it. I think the only reason the GFS is a tad wetter is it may be picking up on and accounting for a possibility of a few random thunderstorms along the Palmer Divide on either Saturday or Tuesday. We don't see a lot of thunderstorm chances outside of those 2 days over the next week.
Any Long Term Change?
If you read our Long Range Experimental Forecast for August 2020 (available for everyone until Saturday 8/8/2020 then site supporters after that) it should come as no surprise that we have a pretty unenthusiastic view of our chances for moisture going forwards. One of the Meteorologists I like to watch down in the springs said it best:
No real change today, nor do I expect any... #Desertfarmers, if you don't get rain in the next couple days, it's going to be awhile. Drier than average, no monsoon, and it's going to be hot too...#cowx #kswx #phwx #nmwx pic.twitter.com/NtEyPUUZso
— Brian Bledsoe (@BrianBledsoe) August 4, 2020
Brian Bledsoe with KKTV is a great meteorologist and one of the better long range forecasters I've met and seen. When he speaks on subjects like this, it's well worth a listen! You can see from my graphics above we don't see good chances of widespread rain in the next 7-10 days and with Brian's graphic posted above running through the late part of August the rest of the month is not looking promising.
Summary
After our week of somewhat stormy weather and hit or miss hail storms, we will dial back the severe weather significantly and return back to our warmer and drier pattern. Sadly we could really use the moisture but we just don't see good chances of it. The monsoon you may ask? The window on that to bring us any relief is closing pretty fast but given what I'm seeing in the data going into the end of August; the monsoon is pretty much dead and gone for this year...
Some parts of Colorado will return to triple digit heat over the next several days. Record breaking highs are possible in some locations.
